WEEK 7

As we reach mid-February it seems fairly clear that the late season market will have its challenges.

The situation currently is relatively simple. The supply of large fruit is tight and demand is strong. Consequently values are lifting. Medium fruit sizes have increased slightly on the back of larger fruit demand but the opposite is happening for smaller sizes. Fruit smaller than size 32 is under significant price pressure and there is limited demand pulling volumes through the system.

The market, although slightly unsettled is nevertheless positive. Packing statistics indicate that volumes are dropping and a period of value consistency at the reduced volume level is likely over the coming period. If we look-out over the next two months we would predict pricing levels as per the below table. 

At the New Zealand Market meeting on Wednesday of this week all marketers echoed the same opinion – an abundance of small fruit combined with low pack-out rates is generating significant volumes of Class 3 fruit. On a positive note the tight supply of large Class 2 sizes is maintaining Class 3 demand at stable and sustainable values.

Of significant interest and worthy of mention is the fact that the New Zealand market has this season recorded a best-ever volume performance. On a forecast of 1.9 million trays we are already at 2.4 million with a likely season total of around 2.5/2.6 million trays. This total will be the largest ever seasonal volume sold in New Zealand and will push market values to around $55 million.

The domestic market is seeing a continuation of strong growth in both volume and value; maintaining the positive trend that has been evident for the last five to six years.   

Please note that these prices below are purely estimates and should not be considered entirely accurate.

Best regards

Glen and team.