WEEK 3 MARKET REPORT
As we commence 2020 it is timely to wish everybody a happy New Year. Following three weeks of leave I am personally a little slow getting back into a work pattern.
What I have noted on my return could be best described as a continuation of an extended period of value inertia.
Weekly NZ Avocado packing-data showed a considerable reduction of domestic volume in the two short weeks over the Christmas/New Year period but volume has bounced back to 90,000 trays in the first full week of the year. This figure is generally in line with the high weekly volumes recorded toward the end of 2019. With the export flow-plan looking relatively solid until week seven of this year, it seems illogical to expect significant upward shifts in value in the January or early February period.
Our pricing for the January period will not differ much from returns achieved during November and the pre-Christmas period. Size 18 to 30 fruit will hold in a bracket between $18 to $20 coolstore-door with perhaps some upside in certain sizes as we see the results of early season picking patterns.
Looking forward we are predicting a strong end to the season. However, as indicated, January price increases are unlikely with any lift potentially being mid to late February. Further increases in value will occur during March and April however it is hard to gauge just how much fruit will be left by then given the strong late season pricing in the Australian market and fruit loss due to extended harvest and weather. We will continue to update pricing and supply information on a regular basis through January.
For those growers who have held fruit for the late domestic market, optimum harvest looks most likely to be pushed back somewhat; that will largely be a decision that involves fruit drop, summer pruning requirements, general tree health and size progression.
Glen and team.