MARKET REPORT

WEEK 44

Pricing is for the current sales period. Prices may not always accurately reflect your returns as stock may be held over pending sale or as the market dictates. Where no price is recorded, sales have not been made in the report period. Prices are subject to change based on daily market conditions. Packing/Packaging costs should be deducted from these prices. 

 

This Market Report concentrates on the up-coming weeks and looks at quality, pricing and volume. 

As can be noted above, domestic pricing is coming under considerable pressure. The above indicative prices are where we see values settling over the coming few weeks and reflect an expected heavier supply volume with continuing quality related issues. 

It seems fairly clear to all stakeholders that the next ten to twelve weeks promises to be a challenging period for all industry sectors. 

The AIC domestic market forecast which was released earlier this week confirmed that export flow plans are about to lift significantly as the Australian domestic crop lightens up. We will see a sizeable increase in packed bin numbers. 

What is also expected is a continuation of export pack-outs that are significantly down on normal levels and hence generating much more local-market product. Combine this with advancing fruit maturity with higher than desirable skin defect levels and life as a marketer becomes somewhat of a challenge – especially when managing sizeable stock volumes. Date, age and fruit-flow will be critical considerations. 

This combination of factors will challenge the domestic market. To date this season we have seen good weekly volumes traded with a number of those weeks at the 60,000 tray level. Retail programmes have been driving good promotional activity, consumption has been excellent and values have remained sustainable, almost exceptional given quality and volume issues. 

Current pricing however is not sustainable and therefore we now flag that significant volume increases, as forecasted within this week’s Marketers Forecast released by AIC, have the potential to see domestic market values drop further. Already in the last fortnight we have seen price reductions and this could be expected to occur again as export packing increases generating very high domestic stocks. Clearly, fruit quality factors have a real potential to impact values. 

Already we are hearing of some very cheap parcels of fruit in reasonable volumes being offered to buyers. We will keep you updated with values as they change so that everybody is aware of price trends during the coming months. 

Regards 

Glen.